New GOP Polling Finds Western State Democrats In Trouble

Kyle Trygstad

September 2, 2010

CQ Politics

New polling in 10 Democratic-held, Western state districts released on Thursday by the conservative American Action Forum confirms that several Democratic incumbents face highly competitive races this fall.

"It is clear that voters in West coast polling believe our nation is on the wrong track," said American Action Forum President Douglas Holtz-Eakin.

Trailing by significant margins are Democratic Reps. Ann Kirkpatrick and Harry Mitchell of Arizona, and John Salazar and Betsy Markey of Colorado.

In Arizona's 1st district, Kirkpatrick trailed dentist Paul Gosar 47 percent to 41 percent, with 12 percent undecided. In the state's 5th district, Mitchell trailed his 2008 opponent Dave Schweikert 50 percent to 44 percent.

Salazar, who faced nominal opposition in 2008, trailed state Rep. Scott Tipton 51 percent to 43 percent. The polling showed Markey faced the greatest deficit, as state Rep. Cory Gardner led 50 percent to 39 percent.

In each district, the results include interviews with 400 voters who say they are at least somewhat likely to vote in November.

There was little good news for Democrats, other than Rep. Martin Heinrich (N.M.) holding a 7-point lead over challenger Jon Barela, which is in line with previous polls in the district. Also, freshman Rep. Kurt Schrader (Ore.) leads state Rep. Scott Bruun by 8 points, though Schrader is polling well below 50 percent, and 21 percent of district voters remain undecided.

"As voters learn about these Republican candidates' support for policies like privatizing Social Security and Medicare, eliminating public schools, outsourcing American jobs and drastically cutting veterans benefits, it'll become abundantly clear how out of touch these candidates are," said Andy Stone, spokesman for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.

Elsewhere, four incumbents are in virtual dead heats with their Republican challengers, the polling showed. Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (Ariz.) was tied at 46 percent with Iraq War veteran Jesse Kelly. Rep. Dina Titus (Nev.) was behind by 3 points against former state Sen. Joe Heck. Rep. Jerry McNerney (Calif.) was at 44 percent and in a virtual tie with attorney David Harmer. And Rep. Loretta Sanchez (Calif.) led 45 percent to 43 percent against Assemblyman Van Tran.

While most political observers see the landscape continuing to improve for Republicans, as the polls suggest, Democrats and others have questioned the methodology of the partisan-sponsored polls. Former Sen. Norm Coleman (R-Minn.) serves as the think tank's chief executive.